Data: bars sync: 10 symbols missing
The revision adds five new picks—LPG, NVDA, LNG, NTNX and HALO, each 5-9%—with lowered entry zones for better reward-to-risk. It exits MRAM, GDOT, GSIT, LWLG, PLTR, ROKU, TSLA, SOXX, ASML and DRAM, trims TSM to 9%, MSFT to 2.5% and VTWO to 3%, and holds MA, SKHY, SNOW and LRCX. About 49% sits in cash and defensive ETFs (SGOV, SHY, cash) as dry powder for limit orders below current prices.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHY | defensive | 10.0% | ||
| LNG | pick | 9.0% | position | 62 |
| NVDA | pick | 6.0% | position | 66 |
| LPG | pick | 5.0% | position | 66 |
| NTNX | pick | 5.0% | position | 62 |
| HALO | pick | 5.0% | position | 60 |
| CASH | cash | 3.0% | ||
| Your holdings (18) | holding | 57.0% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 49.0%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG | large | position | 278.00–286.00 | 268.00 | 322.00 | 2.9 | EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance were raised about 14-16%, buybacks continue, and the stock is in an uptrend that adds no correl… | 2026-10-29 Q3 2026 earnings report with EPS estimate $4.0068 and reven… |
| NVDA | mega | position | 219.00–224.00 | 214.00 | 245.00 | 3.1 | Data Center revenue grew 117% YoY, gross margin is 75% and it trades at about 28x trailing earnings. | 2026-11-17 Q3 FY2027 earnings release; consensus estimates EPS of $2.5… |
| LPG | mid | position | 55.50–57.50 | 53.00 | 65.50 | 2.6 | Gas-carrier shipping (VLGCs) at about 6x run-rate earnings, with 99% of Q3 fleet days fixed above $88k/day ahead of the Nov 4 report. | 2026-11-04 Next earnings report, FY27 Q2, to confirm whether high fixe… |
| NTNX | large | position | 70.50–72.50 | 66.50 | 83.00 | 2.3 | Hybrid-cloud software, not semiconductors: annual recurring revenue +16%, free cash flow of $841M, operating margin expanding, and FY27 gui… | 2026-11-23 Fiscal 2027 Q1 earnings report, with company guidance of $7… |
| HALO | large | position | 104.00–107.50 | 101.00 | 122.00 | 3.4 | Based on fundamentals only (the claimed legal tailwind is removed): revenue grew 48%, the operating margin is 60% and there is a new $1B bu… | 2026-11-09 Q3 2026 earnings report expected to confirm continuation of… |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | add | 5.8% | 36.0% | The main defensive sleeve, earning T-bill yields (3-month at about 4.06%). It absorbs the exits and funds the entry-zone buys as orders fill. Weak breadth (47% of stocks above their 200-day average) supports keeping it heavy for now. |
| TSM | trim | 20.5% | 9.0% | Long thesis intact: revenue +54.6% YoY and a recent earnings beat (F-TSM-1, F-TSM-8). Trim from 20.5% to 9%, under the 12% max, and to shrink the chip cluster ahead of today's results. The stop is 418. |
| VTWO | trim | 11.8% | 3.0% | Conviction is only 45 and the bounce rests on price levels alone; the ETF is barely above its 200-day average and 9.6 points behind SPY (F-VTWO-6, F-VTWO-7). Keep 3%, sell entirely on a close below 109, and add only after a close back above the 20-day average (about 113.6). |
| SNOW | hold | 2.8% | 2.8% | Long thesis: net revenue retention of 126% and guidance raised to 36% growth (F-SNOW-3, F-SNOW-5). The price is above the entry zone, so hold rather than add. The stop is 318. |
| MSFT | trim | 4.2% | 2.5% | Avoid stance on timing: RSI 70.8 at a 52-week high after a 37.6% run (F-MSFT-1, F-MSFT-2), with earnings on Oct 28. Trim, but keep a core position given Azure's growth (F-MSFT-7). |
| MA | hold | 2.3% | 2.3% | Fundamentals are excellent: revenue +14% and a 60% operating margin (F-MA-1, F-MA-2). The avoid stance is only about new-entry timing at RSI 71.8 (F-MA-9). No add before the Oct 29 results. |
| LRCX | hold | 1.2% | 1.2% | Long thesis after a record quarter (F-LRCX-1, F-LRCX-2). A small 1.2% position is an acceptable gap risk into the Oct 21 results. Exit on a close below 274. |
| SKHY | hold | 0.3% | 0.3% | Long thesis at about 7x earnings (F-SKHY-6), but the stock is below its 20- and 50-day averages (F-SKHY-2). Keep this tiny 0.3% position into the Oct 28 results and exit on a close below 139. |
| MRAM | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: losses are widening, shares are being diluted and the stock is below all its moving averages (F-MRAM-3, F-MRAM-5, F-MRAM-8). |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: unprofitable despite revenue growth and in a technical downtrend (F-GDOT-2, F-GDOT-6, F-GDOT-9). |
| GSIT | sell | 0.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: losses are widening, cash is being raised by selling new shares, and earnings land on Oct 22 (F-GSIT-3, F-GSIT-4, F-GSIT-6). |
| LWLG | sell | 0.4% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: essentially pre-revenue, burning about $6.6M a quarter, and diluting shareholders through new share sales (F-LWLG-1, F-LWLG-3, F-LWLG-6). |
| PLTR | sell | 14.0% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: 81.5x sales and 166x earnings (F-PLTR-11), RSI 75.6 at the 52-week high (F-PLTR-8, F-PLTR-10). Strong growth alone does not justify a residual position. Selling now locks in the 56% three-month gain. |
| ROKU | sell | 1.8% | 0.0% | The price now trades on the Fox merger (F-ROKU-10), but the deal price, vote date and regulatory timeline are unknown, and shareholder demand letters have been filed (F-ROKU-11). The spread and the downside if the deal breaks cannot be measured, so exit. |
| TSLA | sell | 2.2% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: operating margin is 1.4%, free cash flow is negative and the stock is below its 200-day average, with earnings on Oct 21 (F-TSLA-4, F-TSLA-6, F-TSLA-9). |
| SOXX | sell | 11.5% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: below its 20-day average, momentum (MACD) negative, and 5.3 points behind SPY over 3 months (F-SOXX-6, F-SOXX-8, F-SOXX-10). It duplicates the TSM, NVDA and LRCX exposure. This is the main cut to the chip cluster. |
| ASML | sell | 6.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: 57.8x earnings against 3.6% earnings growth (F-ASML-7, F-ASML-9), and the Q3 result is unknown to this brief. Selling cuts semiconductor overlap. |
| DRAM | sell | 3.0% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: the CXMT chip-design news threatens memory pricing (F-DRAM-10), the price is below its 20- and 50-day averages (F-DRAM-8), and the fund's holdings are unknown. |
New picks: NTNX. Dropped picks: ECPG. V target hit on 2026-10-09 (7.1%). MA closed on 2026-10-13 (6.5%).
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.