ASML: ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares
Holding · 5.5% · trim (from 6.4%) · mega · Technology · last 1,571.80
Entry 1,490.00–1,575.00 · Stop 1,430.00 · Target 1,760.00 · Hold (on target)
Long thesis (conviction 66; margin turning up and a 2027-28 demand gap, F-ASML-1, F-ASML-6); trimmed slightly as part of the semiconductor group.
Thesis (long, position, conviction 66)
Bull: Q3 2026 results showed a sharp inflection: gross margin jumped to 57.5% from 54.0% in Q2, system bookings rose to 113 units from 86, and reported EPS of 12.93 beat estimates by 17.1% (F-ASML-1, F-ASML-2, F-ASML-3, F-ASML-11). Q4 guidance of €14.2–€15.2bn sales at ~57% gross margin implies a strong sequential step-up, and FY2026 sales guidance of €44–45bn confirms the growth trajectory is intact (F-ASML-4, F-ASML-5). Management explicitly said 2027–2028 customer demand is expected to exceed currently planned supply and that it is studying capacity increases beyond the already-communicated 30% uplift for 2028 — a structural, multi-year demand signal rather than a one-quarter beat (F-ASML-6). Capital return is substantial: ~€4.1bn of buybacks in the quarter plus an interim dividend of €1.88/share (F-ASML-7, F-ASML-8). Sell-side skew remains heavily bullish (9 strong buys, 27 buys vs. only 2 sells, 4 holds) (F-ASML-12). The stock has pulled back 21.5% from its 52-week high and is technically oversold (RSI14 33.6), setting up an attractive entry into a name with accelerating fundamentals (F-ASML-9, F-ASML-10).
Bear: Price action is weak on its own terms: -11.1% over 3 months, -14.7% relative to SPY, trading below both the 50-day (1728) and essentially at the 200-day (1583.57) moving average, which could act as resistance on the way back up (F-ASML-9, F-ASML-10). The brief contains no valuation multiples (P/E, FCF yield) or balance-sheet detail, and a data gap note confirms SEC annual/quarterly fundamentals were unavailable, limiting a clean read on whether the post-beat rally is already in the price. Semicap demand is inherently cyclical and capacity-expansion commentary (F-ASML-6) is forward-looking management guidance, not booked orders; any China/export-control or customer capex pushback is a known tail risk for ASML not addressed in this brief. The position is already a meaningful 6.35% portfolio weight, so sizing risk is real even if the thesis is right.
Valuation: The brief does not provide multiples (P/E, EV/FCF) or balance-sheet data, so valuation cannot be benchmarked precisely — this is a clear gap. What the brief does show is a 57.5% gross margin (up from 54.0% QoQ), an EPS beat of 17.1% versus estimates, and FY guidance implying continued high-margin growth. Combined with a 21.5% drawdown from the 52-week high, the risk/reward skews favorably: earnings quality is improving faster than the stock price, suggesting the market has not yet re-rated the margin inflection and demand commentary into the price.
Catalysts
2026-11-04: Interim 2026 dividend payment of €1.88/share
F-ASML-1: For Q3 2026, ended September 30, ASML reported total net sales of €11.662 billion and net income of €4.960 billion. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-2: ASML’s Q3 2026 gross margin was 57.5%, compared with 54.0% in Q2 2026. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-3: ASML reported sales of 113 new lithography systems in Q3 2026, up from 86 in Q2 2026. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-4: ASML guided to Q4 2026 total net sales of €14.2–€15.2 billion and a gross margin of around 57%. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-5: ASML forecast full-year 2026 total net sales of €44–€45 billion and a gross margin of around 56%. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-6: Management said customer demand for 2027 and 2028 was expected to exceed ASML’s currently planned supply, and that it was investigating capacity increases for 2028 beyond the previously communicated 30% increase. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-7: ASML said it purchased approximately €4.1 billion of shares under its 2026–2028 buyback program during Q3 2026. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-8: ASML announced an interim 2026 dividend of €1.88 per ordinary share, payable November 4, 2026. (as of 2026-10-14)[E7298]source
F-ASML-9: ASML’s October 22, 2026 close was $1,560.54, 21.5% below its 52-week closing high of $1,986.87. (as of 2026-10-22)[E6982]
F-ASML-10: As of October 22, 2026, ASML’s 3-month return was -11.1% and its 3-month relative strength versus SPY was -14.7%; its RSI14 was 33.6. (as of 2026-10-22)[E6982]
F-ASML-11: ASML’s Q3 2026 reported EPS of 12.93 exceeded the estimate of 11.0415 by 17.1%, according to the earnings-surprise data. (as of 2026-10-23)[E7002]
F-ASML-12: For October 2026, analyst recommendations recorded for ASML.AS included 9 strong buys, 27 buys, 4 holds, 2 sells, and no strong sells. (as of 2026-10-01)[E7002]
Management walking back the 2027-2028 supply-demand gap commentary or canceling the capacity-expansion study
RSI failing to recover above 50 within 4-6 weeks despite the earnings beat, signaling institutional distribution continues
Data quality
Quality score 84/100.
Gap: The annual SEC fundamentals tool returned no annual figures, and the context pack notes that recent SEC company-facts quarterly data was unavailable; the financial information here relies on ASML’s Q3 2026 release and third-party market data.
Gap: The quote block is timestamped 2026-10-24, after the stated analysis date of 2026-10-23, so it was not used. The latest dated bars in the pack are from 2026-10-22.