ASML: ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares
Holding · 4.0% · trim (from 7.2%) · mega · Technology · last 1,834.39
Entry 1,750.00–1,834.00 · Stop 1,680.00 · Target 2,020.00 · Sell ≈ 1 share (≈ $1,834 at 1,834.39)
The EUV monopoly and raised guidance support keeping it, but it has lagged SPY over 3 months. Trimmed to lower chip-stock concentration.
Thesis (long, position, conviction 58)
Bull: ASML remains the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems, a structural monopoly in the most advanced chip-manufacturing step, and its fundamentals confirm continued strength: Q2 2026 gross margin of 54% (F-ASML-7), net income of €2.918B on €9.326B sales (F-ASML-5, F-ASML-6), and a raised full-year 2026 guidance of €43-45B sales with 54-56% gross margin (F-ASML-8). Management is committing capital to grow low-NA EUV capacity 30% into 2027 (F-ASML-9), signaling confidence in demand durability tied to AI-driven fab buildout, and it returned €1.1B to shareholders via buybacks in the quarter alone (F-ASML-10). Q2 EPS beat estimates by ~9.4% (F-ASML-12). Technically, the stock just broke out to close above its 20/50/200-day moving averages (F-ASML-2) with a 3.56% single-day move (F-ASML-1), RSI at 63 (room before overbought), and a Q3 earnings report on 2026-10-14 is a near-term catalyst that could extend the move if the capacity-expansion narrative and margin trajectory are reaffirmed.
Bear: The stock is up 94% over the trailing year (F-ASML-3) and has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 10 points in the last three months (F-ASML-4), suggesting the easy re-rating is largely behind it and the market has already priced in much of the EUV capacity story. The brief contains no forward P/E, FCF yield, or peer comparison, so there's no clean read on how much further multiple expansion is justified — the buy case rests on momentum and a single strong quarter rather than a demonstrated valuation discount. Semiconductor capital equipment is cyclical and capacity commitments (F-ASML-9) can become overcapacity if customer capex slows; there is also no long-term/annual SEC fundamentals data available (data gap noted), and 52-week range figures conflict across sources, reducing confidence in the technical read of extension versus history. A single-day 3.56% pop into a stretched chart raises the risk of a post-earnings give-back if Q3 results merely meet rather than beat expectations.
Valuation: The brief provides no P/E, FCF yield, or growth-adjusted multiple, so valuation cannot be benchmarked directly against fundamentals. What is verifiable is a high-quality, high-margin business (54% gross margin, ~31% net margin in Q2) growing guidance upward, trading near all-time highs after a 94% one-year run — this looks priced for continued execution, not for a discount entry. The position is a bet on execution and earnings momentum continuing, not on multiple re-rating from a cheap base.
Catalysts
2026-10-14: Q3 2026 earnings release, before market open
undated: Continued EUV capacity ramp toward 2027 (30% low-NA increase) reported in quarterly updates
Facts
F-ASML-1: ASML closed at $1,834.39 on 2026-09-29, up 3.56% from the prior close. (as of 2026-09-29)[E2609]
F-ASML-2: The 2026-09-29 close of $1,834.39 was above ASML’s 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages of $1,697.16, $1,719.73, and $1,528.66, respectively. (as of 2026-09-29)[E2610]
F-ASML-3: ASML’s share price return over the 12 months through 2026-09-29 was 94.06%. (as of 2026-09-29)[E2610]
F-ASML-4: Over the three months through 2026-09-29, ASML underperformed the S&P 500 by 10.26 percentage points. (as of 2026-09-29)[E2610]
F-ASML-5: ASML reported Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.326 billion for the quarter ended 2026-06-28. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-6: ASML reported Q2 2026 net income of €2.918 billion for the quarter ended 2026-06-28. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-7: ASML reported a 54.0% gross margin for Q2 2026, ended 2026-06-28. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-8: On 2026-07-15, ASML forecast 2026 total net sales of €43 billion to €45 billion and a gross margin of 54% to 56%. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-9: ASML said on 2026-07-15 that it planned to increase 2027 low-NA EUV capacity by 30% from its 2026 capacity level of around 65 systems. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-10: ASML said it purchased approximately €1.1 billion of shares under its 2026–2028 buyback program during Q2 2026. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-11: ASML’s Q2 2026 diluted EPS was reported as €7.59 in its 2026-07-15 results release. (as of 2026-07-15)[E2781]source
F-ASML-12: ASML’s Q2 2026 EPS of $7.58 exceeded the $6.9263 estimate by 9.4379%, for the period ended 2026-06-30. (as of 2026-09-29)[E2630]
What would change the view
A close below $1,680 (below the 50-day MA) invalidating the breakout
Q3 2026 gross margin printing below 54%
2026 sales guidance cut below €43B at or before the Oct 14 report
Relative strength vs. SPY over 3 months deteriorating further from -10.26%
Data quality
Quality score 96/100.
Gap: The SEC annual-fundamentals tool returned no annual data for ASML; the supplied fundamentals block relies on Yahoo and Finnhub fallback data. (E2611, E2774)
Gap: The supplied fundamentals block reports conflicting 52-week ranges across sources: Yahoo lists $935.41–$1,999.96 in the quote block, while Finnhub lists $812.10–$1,741. (E2609, E2611)