The final portfolio adds NVDA (6%) and V (7%) as new picks, while HALO, LNG and ECPG continue at reduced weights, and TSM, SOXX and ASML are trimmed. NOW, SKHY, LRCX and MSFT are held unchanged, and all previously flagged holdings, including PLTR, SNOW and TSLA, are sold. SGOV, SHY and cash together total about 44% of the portfolio.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | defensive | 33.0% | ||
| SHY | defensive | 8.0% | ||
| LNG | pick | 8.0% | position | 64 |
| V | pick | 7.0% | position | 64 |
| NVDA | pick | 6.0% | position | 66 |
| HALO | pick | 6.0% | position | 64 |
| ECPG | pick | 5.0% | position | 62 |
| CASH | cash | 3.0% | ||
| Your holdings (18) | holding | 24.0% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 44.0%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG | large | position | 260.00–270.00 | 248.00 | 310.00 | 2.6 | EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance were raised, new Corpus Christi trains are coming online and buybacks run at $550M a quarter. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-10-28 Next quarterly earnings report; consensus estimates ~$3.98… |
| V | mega | position | 352.00–362.00 | 343.00 | 385.00 | 2.0 | Revenue up 14%, payments volume up 10% and cross-border volume up 12%, from an asset-light payment network. | 2026-10-26 Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report; consensus estimates ~$3.50… |
| NVDA | mega | position | 216.00–225.00 | 205.00 | 251.00 | 2.0 | Buy only with a limit order at 216–225 (the last price of 230.86 is above that range). (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-10-01 Next quarterly cash dividend of $0.25/share payable to hold… |
| HALO | large | position | 104.00–109.00 | 99.00 | 123.00 | 2.2 | Revenue up 48% with about a 60% operating margin, and FY2025 operating cash flow of $651.6M shows the profits are backed by cash. | 2026-11-02 Q3 2026 earnings report (consensus EPS ~$2.397, revenue ~$4… |
| ECPG | mid | position | 93.00–97.00 | 88.50 | 109.00 | 2.2 | About 7.4x earnings with raised collections guidance and $15M a year of interest savings from refinancing. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-11-03 Q3 2026 earnings report; consensus estimates are EPS $3.414… |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | trim | 21.4% | 9.0% | Thesis intact (August sales +53% year on year), but a 21% single-stock weight is too much. Cut to 9% so total Technology including SOXX stays under 30% (F-TSM-5, F-TSM-3). |
| ASML | trim | 7.0% | 4.5% | Monopoly in EUV lithography and guidance was raised, but conviction is 58 and it trails SPY; trimmed to keep the semiconductor holding at about 25% (F-ASML-8, F-ASML-4). |
| SOXX | trim | 12.3% | 4.0% | Uptrend is intact, but SOXX duplicates the TSM, NVDA, ASML and LRCX positions at 41.7x earnings and has trailed SPY by 14% over three months. Treated as part of one semiconductor holding and cut to 4% (F-SOXX-5, F-SOXX-10). |
| MSFT | hold | 4.0% | 4.0% | Long thesis: Azure +43% and strong cash generation, but the price is above the 485–502 entry range, so hold (F-MSFT-5, F-MSFT-10). |
| LRCX | hold | 1.3% | 1.3% | Long thesis: four straight earnings beats and the stock reclaimed its moving averages; small weight inside the capped semiconductor holding (F-LRCX-9). |
| NOW | hold | 0.8% | 0.8% | Long thesis (subscription revenue +24.5%, RPO +21%), but the price is above the entry range and Technology is at the cap (F-NOW-8). |
| SKHY | hold | 0.4% | 0.4% | Long thesis on the memory cycle (86.6% EPS beat); tiny weight, and Technology is at the cap (F-SKHY-7). |
| PLTR | sell | 12.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: about 150x earnings and 73x sales after a 60% three-month run (F-PLTR-13). |
| SNOW | sell | 15.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: about 110x forward earnings, GAAP losses, and stock-based pay well above operating cash flow (F-SNOW-6, F-SNOW-10). |
| MRAM | sell | 0.4% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: GAAP loss widened, operating cash flow collapsed, shares being diluted (F-MRAM-7, F-MRAM-10). |
| GSIT | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: losses doubled and the company funds itself by selling new shares (F-GSIT-6, F-GSIT-10). |
| TSLA | sell | 2.1% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: operating income down 57% while capex tops $25B, funded by a new $30B credit facility (F-TSLA-2, F-TSLA-10). |
| LWLG | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: effectively no revenue, widening losses, ongoing dilution (F-LWLG-8, F-LWLG-10). |
| ROKU | sell | 2.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: Fox merger terms are unverified and the DOJ Second Request leaves timing open (F-ROKU-8). |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: the stock portion of the merger payment cannot be valued, EBITDA is falling and EPS missed (F-GDOT-12, F-GDOT-13). |
| VTWO | sell | 10.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: below its 20- and 50-day averages and trailing SPY by 9.5% while breadth is weak (F-VTWO-7). |
| DRAM | sell | 3.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: down 17% over three months, with a possible Solidigm IPO overhang (F-DRAM-3, F-DRAM-10). |
| VXX | sell | 2.8% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis (conviction 72): rolling VIX futures erodes value; down 47% over 12 months (F-VXX-1, F-VXX-4). |
New picks: V. Dropped picks: MA.
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.