The portfolio exits PLTR, SNOW, TSLA, ROKU, SOXX and other flagged holdings, keeping NOW, SKHY and LRCX, trimming TSM to 8% and ASML to 4%, and adding MSFT to 6%. New picks are MA 10%, LNG 8%, HALO 7%, NVDA 7% and ECPG 5%. About 42.6% sits in SGOV, SHY and cash.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | defensive | 28.0% | ||
| SHY | defensive | 10.0% | ||
| MA | pick | 10.0% | position | 70 |
| LNG | pick | 8.0% | position | 64 |
| NVDA | pick | 7.0% | position | 72 |
| HALO | pick | 7.0% | position | 65 |
| ECPG | pick | 5.0% | position | 70 |
| CASH | cash | 4.6% | ||
| Your holdings (18) | holding | 20.4% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 42.6%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA | mega | position | 557.00–570.00 | 541.00 | 607.00 | 1.9 | Quality compounder: revenue +14%, operating margin up to 60.2%, adjusted EPS +21%. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-10-22 Q3 2026 earnings report expected before market open, consen… |
| LNG | large | position | 260.00–270.00 | 248.00 | 310.00 | 2.6 | Replaces LPG: long-term contracted cash flow and raised 2026 EBITDA and distributable-cash-flow guidance. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-10-28 Next quarterly earnings report; consensus estimates ~$3.98… |
| NVDA | mega | position | 216.00–222.00 | 205.00 | 251.00 | 2.3 | Q2 FY27 revenue +106% YoY and Data Center +117%. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-10-01 Next quarterly cash dividend of $0.25/share payable to hold… |
| HALO | large | position | 108.00–114.00 | 100.00 | 136.00 | 2.3 | Health Care is a leading sector: revenue +47.7%, operating margin about 60%, about 15x annualized earnings. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-11-02 Estimated Q3 2026 earnings release; consensus EPS $2.397 an… |
| ECPG | mid | position | 93.00–97.00 | 88.00 | 109.00 | 2.0 | About 7.4x earnings, collections guidance raised to $2.80-2.85B, $13-14 EPS reiterated. (thesis from 2026-09-25) | 2026-11-03 Q3 2026 earnings report; consensus estimates are EPS $3.414… |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | trim | 21.5% | 8.0% | The long thesis holds (August sales +53% YoY, Q3 earnings 10/14), but 21.5% breaks the 12% position limit. Cut to 8% to reduce overlap with other chip holdings. |
| MSFT | add | 4.0% | 6.0% | Azure +43%, a 21.5x forward P/E and about $183B of operating cash flow. Cloud software diversifies away from chip hardware. Add on a pullback to $485-502. |
| ASML | trim | 7.2% | 4.0% | The EUV monopoly and raised guidance support keeping it, but it has lagged SPY over 3 months. Trimmed to lower chip-stock concentration. |
| LRCX | hold | 1.3% | 1.3% | Four straight earnings beats and it has reclaimed its moving averages. Small position; no add given the chip concentration. |
| NOW | hold | 0.8% | 0.8% | Contracted backlog +21% and a 26x forward P/E support holding. GAAP operating income is falling, so wait for the 10/28 report before adding. |
| SKHY | hold | 0.4% | 0.4% | Memory uptrend and strong analyst support, but fundamentals can't be checked against SEC data. Keep the small position. |
| PLTR | sell | 12.8% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: about 150x earnings and 73x sales after a 60% three-month run leave no margin of safety. |
| SNOW | sell | 15.6% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: about 110x forward earnings, still losing money on a GAAP basis, heavy stock-based pay, and a new $3.75B convertible that could dilute holders. |
| MRAM | sell | 0.4% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: GAAP loss up 5x, operating cash flow has collapsed, and the share count rose 5.6% in six months. |
| GSIT | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: losses have doubled, cash burn is rising, share sales keep diluting holders, and it is in a downtrend. |
| TSLA | sell | 2.1% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: operating income -57% YoY, EPS 36% below estimates, below its 200-day average, and priced at over 330x earnings. |
| LWLG | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: essentially no revenue, widening losses, ongoing dilution, down 45% over 3 months. |
| ROKU | sell | 2.7% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: Fox deal terms are unknown, the DOJ issued a Second Request, and it trades at 64x trailing earnings. |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: the merger payout can't be valued, EBITDA is shrinking, EPS missed, and it is below all its moving averages. |
| SOXX | sell | 12.3% | 0.0% | Duplicates NVDA, TSM, ASML and LRCX. Lags SPY by 14% over 3 months and trades at 41.7x trailing earnings. Selling it is the cleanest way to cut the overlapping chip exposure. |
| VTWO | sell | 11.1% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: below its 20- and 50-day averages and lagging SPY by 9.45% over 3 months. Small caps are the weakest part of the market. |
| DRAM | sell | 3.6% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: concentrated, cyclical memory fund, down 17% over 3 months, with a possible Solidigm IPO hanging over the group. |
| VXX | sell | 2.7% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: the cost of rolling futures steadily eats its value (-47% over 12 months), and a neutral market with no volatility catalyst is the worst setting for holding it. |
New picks: LNG. Dropped picks: LPG.
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.