The final portfolio adds HALO as an 8% pick, while VCTR and IEO picks are cut to 4% and 6%. Numerous speculative holdings (MRAM, GDOT, GSIT, LWLG, ROKU, SKHY, SNOW, TSLA, VTWO, DRAM) are sold, TSM, ASML, SOXX and PLTR are trimmed, and MSFT, NVDA, MA and SGOV are added to. Cash and defensive Treasury ETFs (SHY, IEF) total about 26% of the portfolio, with SGOV separately raised to 20%.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASH | cash | 13.7% | ||
| SHY | defensive | 8.0% | ||
| HALO | pick | 8.0% | position | 58 |
| IEO | pick | 6.0% | position | 56 |
| IEF | defensive | 4.0% | ||
| VCTR | pick | 4.0% | position | 60 |
| Your holdings (21) | holding | 56.4% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 45.7%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALO | large | position | 115.00–122.00 | 109.00 | 148.00 | 3.1 | Royalty business with revenue up 48%, raised 2026 guidance and about 14x forward earnings; buy only on a pullback into 115-122 (RSI is 74),… | 2026-11-05 Q3 2026 earnings report, consensus estimates ~$500.7M reven… |
| IEO | position | 144.00–148.00 | 138.00 | 167.00 | 2.6 | Exposure to the leading sector (Energy, +21.8% vs SPY over 3 months), cut to 6% and bought only on a dip to 144-148, which gives about 2.6:… | 2026-10-23 Continued SPR restocking narrative and any related crude de… | |
| VCTR | mid | position | 103.00–108.00 | 98.00 | 122.00 | 2.2 | Starter position: $11.7B of long-term net inflows in Q3, revenue up 24% and an EPS beat of about 21%; add more only if the 11/4 results con… | 2026-11-04 Q3 2026 financial results release and earnings call, which… |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | add | 6.1% | 20.0% | Core of the defensive sleeve, yielding about 4%; absorbs the deferred DEC and UMBF money until Q3 results come in. |
| TSM | trim | 20.3% | 10.0% | Highest-conviction long (70; forward P/E 17.9x, revenue +51%, F-TSM-1, F-TSM-10), cut to 10% to meet the 12% position cap and keep semiconductors in check. |
| MSFT | add | 4.2% | 6.0% | Long thesis (conviction 65): Azure +43%, commercial backlog (RPO) +84% (F-MSFT-6, F-MSFT-7). Not a chip maker, so it adds Technology without adding semiconductor risk; buy in the 512-524 zone, stop 498. |
| ASML | trim | 6.4% | 5.5% | Long thesis (conviction 66; margin turning up and a 2027-28 demand gap, F-ASML-1, F-ASML-6); trimmed slightly as part of the semiconductor group. |
| MA | add | 2.5% | 4.0% | Long thesis (conviction 60): revenue +14%, 60% operating margin (F-MA-1, F-MA-2); add only via limits in the 600-618 zone because RSI is 70 and earnings are due 10/29. |
| NVDA | add | 0.9% | 3.0% | Long thesis (conviction 68): 26.7x P/E on revenue +106%, sitting at its 200-day average (F-NVDA-2, F-NVDA-5); buy in the 203-213 zone, stop 197. |
| SOXX | trim | 10.6% | 3.0% | Lowest conviction (45) and no confirmed reversal (F-SOXX-3); cut to 3% so the semiconductor group totals about 22% instead of 26%. |
| PLTR | trim | 13.9% | 2.0% | Avoid thesis on valuation (F-PLTR-7). Keep a 2% stake: sell it if Q3 revenue on 11/2 comes in below the $2.164B top of guidance, or on a close below $180. |
| LNG | hold | 1.2% | 1.2% | The avoid thesis targets a new entry at an extended price into 10/29 earnings (F-LNG-1, F-LNG-8); the Qatar contract (F-LNG-7) justifies keeping this small position, but not adding. |
| LRCX | hold | 0.9% | 0.9% | Long thesis (conviction 55): oversold, with net cash (F-LRCX-5, F-LRCX-7); China export risk (F-LRCX-4) and the semiconductor total argue against adding. |
| NTNX | hold | 0.7% | 0.7% | Long thesis (conviction 64): recurring revenue (ARR) +16% and free cash flow of $840M (F-NTNX-2, F-NTNX-4); hold at current size. |
| MRAM | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: GAAP losses widening and operating cash flow collapsed (F-MRAM-5, F-MRAM-8). |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: EBITDA margin falling, accounts shrinking, General Counsel resigned (F-GDOT-6, F-GDOT-9, F-GDOT-13). |
| GSIT | sell | 0.8% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: burning cash and selling dilutive stock to fund itself, in a 70% downtrend (F-GSIT-1, F-GSIT-9). |
| LWLG | sell | 0.4% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: almost no revenue against ongoing dilutive share sales (F-LWLG-4, F-LWLG-9). |
| ROKU | sell | 1.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: pending Fox merger with undisclosed terms and shareholder demand letters (F-ROKU-9, F-ROKU-11). |
| SKHY | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: -26.5% in a month and Solidigm IPO plans dropped, with earnings due 10/27 (F-SKHY-2, F-SKHY-9). |
| SNOW | sell | 2.6% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: forward P/E of 108x while losing money on a GAAP basis, plus convertible-note dilution (F-SNOW-1, F-SNOW-8). |
| TSLA | sell | 2.3% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: operating income fell to $718M from $1.6B and the stock is below its 200-day average (F-TSLA-3, F-TSLA-9). |
| VTWO | sell | 12.4% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: small caps lag SPY by 8.7% over 3 months and trade below their 50-day average (F-VTWO-2, F-VTWO-4); the position is also over the 12% cap. |
| DRAM | sell | 2.9% | 0.0% | Avoid thesis: 41.7% below its 52-week high and MACD still bearish (F-DRAM-2, F-DRAM-7). |
New picks: IEO. Dropped picks: CPAY, CRAK, DAC. LNG closed on 2026-10-23 (11.7%).
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.