The portfolio exits twelve broken or avoid-rated holdings, including PLTR, TSLA, ASML, SOXX, VTWO, ROKU, LRCX and DRAM, and trims TSM to its 12% cap. New money adds CPAY, SNOW, LNG, VCTR, DAC, HALO and a tactical CRAK trade, while NVDA, NTNX, MA, SKHY and MSFT are held. About 44% sits in SGOV, SHY, IEF and cash.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPAY | pick | 9.0% | position | 64 |
| SHY | defensive | 8.0% | ||
| CASH | cash | 6.0% | ||
| IEF | defensive | 5.0% | ||
| DAC | pick | 4.0% | position | 62 |
| VCTR | pick | 4.0% | position | 62 |
| HALO | pick | 4.0% | position | 60 |
| CRAK | pick | 3.0% | position | 58 |
| Your holdings (21) | holding | 57.0% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 44.2%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPAY | large | position | 396.00–408.00 | 378.00 | 460.00 | 2.4 | Raised FY26 guidance, adjusted EPS up 36% and about 15x forward adjusted EPS, in an uptrend. | 2026-11-11 Q3 2026 earnings report, after market close, consensus adju… |
| DAC | mid | position | 158.00–163.00 | 150.00 | 185.00 | 2.3 | The value case rests on the container business. (thesis from 2026-10-13) | 2026-11-09 Q3 2026 earnings release, analyst estimate EPS $7.2569 / re… |
| VCTR | mid | position | 105.00–111.50 | 101.00 | 123.00 | 2.0 | $11.7B of Q3 inflows and revenue up 24%, valued at about 16x annualized GAAP EPS of $1.68 (not the adjusted figure). (thesis from 2026-10-13) | 2026-11-04 Q3 2026 financial results release after market close, with… |
| HALO | large | position | 107.00–114.00 | 99.00 | 140.00 | 2.6 | A Health Care leader: royalties up 50%, guidance raised, about 14x forward EPS. | 2026-11-09 Q3 2026 earnings report (consensus estimate ~$2.395 EPS, ~$… |
| CRAK | position | 65.00–68.50 | 61.50 | 78.00 | 2.1 | A tactical 3% momentum trade in the leading sector, Energy. (thesis from 2026-10-13) |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | add | 6.0% | 25.2% | Core of the defensive sleeve (0-3 month Treasuries). It now sits here instead of in positions, because SGOV is already held. |
| TSM | trim | 20.1% | 12.0% | The long thesis holds (revenue +50.9% YoY, gross margin 66.4%, Q4 guidance strong), but 20% breaks the 12% position cap. The stop stays at $390, just under the 200-day average. |
| SNOW | add | 2.7% | 6.0% | Long, conviction 63: guidance raised, net revenue retention 126%, remaining performance obligations up 30%. $335 is at the bottom of the entry zone and the $318 stop is about 5% away. |
| LNG | add | 1.1% | 5.0% | Cut from 7% to 5% because of leverage (3.88x debt-to-equity, 0.87 current ratio) and the Oct 29 earnings report. The $268 stop is 4% away, so the position risks about 0.2% of the portfolio. Buy half before earnings and the rest after. |
| MSFT | hold | 4.3% | 4.3% | Rated avoid on timing only (RSI 70.8 before Oct 28 earnings); the fundamentals are strong. Hold, don't add. With the other Technology exits, no trim is needed. |
| MA | hold | 2.4% | 2.4% | The avoid call is about timing (overbought before Oct 29 earnings), not quality. Hold the small position without adding; exit on a close below the 50-day average (about $574). |
| NVDA | hold | 0.9% | 0.9% | A hard exit on any daily close below $216 stays active. Add only after it reclaims the 50-day average (about $223). |
| NTNX | hold | 0.7% | 0.7% | The long thesis holds, but $69.98 is just below the entry zone and the CEO sold shares. Stop at $66.50. |
| SKHY | hold | 0.6% | 0.6% | Cheap at about 7x earnings but technically weak; the price is below the entry zone ahead of Oct 28 earnings. Tiny weight, stop at $139. |
| MRAM | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: losses widening, about 5.6% dilution, and in a downtrend. |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: Q2 operating loss, a 31% EPS miss, $280M of cash drawdown, and the general counsel leaving. |
| GSIT | sell | 0.9% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: losses widening and funded by issuing new shares through an at-the-market (ATM) program; below all moving averages. |
| LWLG | sell | 0.4% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: losses about 200x revenue and ongoing dilution from ATM share sales. |
| PLTR | sell | 13.9% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: 81.5x sales, 166x earnings and RSI 75.6 before Nov 2 earnings. There's no valuation case for keeping any of it, so take the gains. |
| ROKU | sell | 1.8% | 0.0% | The Fox deal price and closing date are unknown, so there's no measurable merger spread. Exit. |
| TSLA | sell | 2.2% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: operating margin 1.4%, free cash flow negative, below the 200-day average before Oct 21 earnings. |
| SOXX | sell | 11.2% | 0.0% | Rated avoid. Now $514.71, below its 50-day average, with weak momentum, and it duplicates TSM and NVDA. |
| VTWO | sell | 12.1% | 0.0% | $111.09 is already below the 200-day support the thesis relied on, and small caps are weak (IWM -6.2% over 3 months). |
| ASML | sell | 6.6% | 0.0% | We can't see the Oct 14 results, and before them the stock traded at 57.8x earnings with 3.6% EPS growth. Exit pending a review. |
| LRCX | sell | 1.1% | 0.0% | $277 is below the 200-day average (about $280), the thesis's own invalidation level, ahead of a demanding Oct 21 report. |
| DRAM | sell | 2.9% | 0.0% | Rated avoid: the CXMT news threatens memory pricing, the price is below its 20- and 50-day averages, and the holdings are unknown. |
New picks: CPAY, CRAK, DAC, VCTR. Dropped picks: LPG.
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.