ASML: ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares
Holding · 5.0% · trim (from 6.9%) · mega · Technology · last 1,834.10
Entry 1,750.00–1,820.00 · Stop 1,670.00 · Target 2,050.00 · Sell ≈ 1 share (≈ $1,834 at 1,834.10)
Long thesis intact: FY26 guidance raised to €43-45B and the Q3 outlook implies acceleration. Trimmed so Technology stocks plus SOXX stay under 30% combined ahead of the Oct 14 report; stop on a close below $1,670.
Thesis (long, position, conviction 60)
Bull: ASML sits at the center of the EUV lithography monopoly needed for leading-edge logic and memory. Q2 2026 results were strong (€9.326bn sales, €2.918bn net income, 54.0% gross margin) and management raised FY2026 sales guidance to €43–45bn with margin guidance of 54–56%, alongside a bullish Q3 outlook of €11.0–12.0bn sales and 55–57% gross margin — both guidance ranges imply sequential acceleration into year-end. The company is also expanding capacity, planning a 30% increase in 2027 low-NA EUV systems versus the 2026 plan of ~65 units, signalling confidence in a multi-year demand runway (AI/HBM-driven capex from foundries and memory makers). ASML continues to return capital, buying back ~€1.1bn of stock in Q2 under its 2026–2028 program, while holding €7.582bn in cash/short-term investments. Technically, the stock is in a clear uptrend: price ($1,834.10) is above both the 20-day ($1,732.56) and 200-day ($1,547.78) moving averages, RSI14 at 59.8 is constructive but not yet overbought, and shares are only 7.69% off the 52-week high despite a 78.86% trailing 12-month return — momentum without extreme exhaustion.
Bear: The stock has already run 78.86% over the past year and is extended well above its 50-day (~$1,727) and 200-day (~$1,548) moving averages, leaving less margin for error. An estimated Q3 earnings release on 2026-10-14 is roughly a week away — a binary event that could trigger a sharp move in either direction given how much good news (raised guidance, buybacks, capacity expansion) is already public and plausibly priced in. The brief contains no multi-year or annual SEC fundamentals (data gap), no explicit P/E, FCF yield, or growth-rate-to-multiple comparison, making it hard to confirm the stock isn't simply expensive on an absolute basis after an outsized rally. 3-month relative strength vs. SPY is slightly negative (-0.94%), suggesting the stock has recently lagged the broad market despite the long-term uptrend. Semicap names are also cyclical and politically exposed (export controls to China, customer capex timing), risks not addressed in this brief's red flags (none reported) but relevant to the sector generally.
Valuation: The brief lacks trailing/forward P/E, FCF yield, or multi-year revenue/earnings history (SEC annual data was unavailable), so a precise valuation verdict isn't possible from this data alone. What is clear: Q2 2026 net margin was ~31% (€2.918bn/€9.326bn) on 54.0% gross margin, and guided Q3 margins (55–57%) and FY2026 sales (€43–45bn) point to margin expansion alongside growth — fundamentally supportive of a premium multiple. However, after a 78.86% 12-month rally, the stock trades well above both key moving averages, implying the market has already priced in much of this good news; this is a quality compounder trading rich on momentum rather than a name offering a valuation cushion.
Catalysts
2026-10-14: Q3 2026 earnings release, estimated date, will test whether actual results land within or above the guided €11.0–12.0bn sales / 55–57% gross margin range
2027-06-10: ASML Capital Markets Day — potential update on multi-year EUV capacity and demand outlook
Facts
F-ASML-1: ASML's U.S.-listed shares closed at $1,834.10 on 2026-10-06. (as of 2026-10-06)[E4316]
F-ASML-2: ASML's share price had risen 78.86% over the 12 months through 2026-10-06. (as of 2026-10-06)[E4316]
F-ASML-3: At the 2026-10-06 close, ASML traded above its 20-day moving average of $1,732.56 and its 200-day moving average of $1,547.78. (as of 2026-10-06)[E4316]
F-ASML-4: ASML reported Q2 2026 net sales of €9.326 billion. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-5: ASML reported Q2 2026 net income of €2.918 billion. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-6: ASML reported a 54.0% gross margin for Q2 2026. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-7: ASML reported €7.582 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q2 2026. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-8: ASML forecast Q3 2026 net sales of €11.0–€12.0 billion and a gross margin of 55%–57%. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-9: ASML said it expected 2026 net sales of €43–€45 billion and a gross margin of 54%–56%. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-10: ASML said it purchased around €1.1 billion of shares in Q2 2026 under its 2026–2028 buyback program. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
F-ASML-11: ASML said it planned to increase 2027 low-NA EUV capacity by 30% from its 2026 plan of around 65 systems. (as of 2026-07-15)[E4589]source
What would change the view
A daily close below $1,670 (below the stop/50-day support zone)
RSI14 spiking above 80 at current price levels without a guidance raise, signalling blow-off risk
Data quality
Quality score 96/100.
Gap: The SEC annual-fundamentals tool returned no annual observations for ASML; the context pack also notes that recent quarterly SEC companyfacts data was unavailable for this filer (E4588, E4317).
Gap: The quote block is timestamped 2026-10-07, after the context date of 2026-10-06, so its quote and related change data were not used (E4315).