Data: bars sync: 7 symbols missing
The portfolio adds five new picks (NVDA, LNG, HALO, ECPG, LPG) totaling 24%, while MA, MSFT and SGOV are added or increased and SOXX, ASML, TSM and VTWO are trimmed. PLTR, TSLA, ROKU, GDOT, GSIT, LWLG and DRAM are sold. SGOV, SHY and cash together hold about 41% of the portfolio, reflecting a defensive tilt ahead of October earnings.
| Ticker | Type | Weight | Horizon | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG | pick | 8.0% | position | 64 |
| CASH | cash | 6.2% | ||
| SHY | defensive | 5.0% | ||
| NVDA | pick | 5.0% | position | 66 |
| HALO | pick | 5.0% | position | 62 |
| ECPG | pick | 3.0% | position | 55 |
| LPG | pick | 3.0% | position | 55 |
| Your holdings (18) | holding | 64.8% |
Cash and defensive ETFs: 41.2%.
| Ticker | Cap | Horizon | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R | Thesis | Next catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG | large | position | 270.00–278.00 | 256.00 | 310.00 | 2.0 | Cleanest risk-reward of the non-Technology picks: full-year EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance were raised, about $550M of buyback… | 2026-10-29 Q3 2026 earnings release expected before market open; watch… |
| NVDA | mega | position | 226.00–234.00 | 214.00 | 271.00 | 2.6 | Revenue up 106% and data-center revenue up 117% y/y at a 75% gross margin. | 2026-11-17 Fiscal Q3 2027 earnings release, after market close; consen… |
| HALO | large | position | 104.00–108.00 | 99.00 | 123.00 | 2.4 | Revenue up 48% with an operating margin near 60%. (thesis from 2026-10-01) | 2026-11-02 Q3 2026 earnings report (consensus EPS ~$2.397, revenue ~$4… |
| ECPG | mid | position | 96.50–99.50 | 92.00 | 112.00 | 2.3 | At 7.5x trailing earnings, with operating income up 24% and an EPS beat. | 2026-11-04 Q3 2026 earnings release, after market close |
| LPG | mid | position | 53.00–55.50 | 50.50 | 65.00 | 2.9 | Operating income rose more than 9x y/y, but rate visibility only covers the quarter that ended in September and the new facility refinances… | 2026-11-04 Q3 FY26 earnings release (calendar estimate, not company-co… |
| Ticker | Action | From | To | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | add | 5.6% | 30.0% | The core of the defensive sleeve, holding T-bills at about 4%. It receives the proceeds from the concentration cuts until the redeployment triggers fire. |
| MA | add | 2.1% | 7.0% | Long thesis at conviction 66: revenue up 14% and operating income up 17%, with zero sell ratings. The price of 566.58 is inside the 555-570 entry zone and the 545 stop is under 4% away, the best risk-adjusted add outside Technology. |
| SOXX | trim | 12.1% | 5.0% | The fund is non-diversified and overlaps NVDA, TSM, ASML and LRCX, and its 3-month relative strength vs SPY is flat. Cut to 5% so Technology stocks plus SOXX total about 29.8% combined. |
| ASML | trim | 6.9% | 5.0% | Long thesis intact: FY26 guidance raised to €43-45B and the Q3 outlook implies acceleration. Trimmed so Technology stocks plus SOXX stay under 30% combined ahead of the Oct 14 report; stop on a close below $1,670. |
| MSFT | add | 4.0% | 5.0% | Azure growing 43%, a forward P/E of 22x and conviction 66. A modest add within the combined Technology budget; RSI 68 argues against more before the Oct 27 report. |
| TSM | trim | 21.6% | 5.0% | The avoid thesis is about price and concentration (RSI 72.7, earnings Oct 14-15) at only 45 conviction; the fundamentals are elite (revenue +36% y/y, August revenue +53% y/y). Keep 5% with these rules: sell the rest on a close below the 50-day average (about $427) or if Q3 revenue or margin lands below guidance. Re-add only on a pullback to $427-445 with RSI under 60. |
| VTWO | trim | 11.7% | 3.0% | Lagging: below its 20-day and 50-day averages, 8.7 points behind SPY over 3 months, and breadth is only 49%. Keep 3% above its 200-day average. Rules: re-add toward 6% only on a close above the 50-day ($117.81); sell on a close below $109.50. |
| SNOW | hold | 2.5% | 2.5% | Long thesis at conviction 55: revenue up 35% and losses narrowing. No add within the combined Technology budget. |
| LRCX | hold | 1.2% | 1.2% | Long thesis (forward P/E 28x, four straight beats), but there is no room in the combined Technology budget to add before the Oct 21 report. |
| MRAM | hold | 0.7% | 0.7% | Long thesis: revenue up 42% and non-GAAP profitable. The small-cap position stays small into the Nov 3 print. |
| SKHY | hold | 0.3% | 0.3% | Long thesis, but there is no valuation data and the 3-month history is missing. A tiny position held into the Oct 27 report. |
| GDOT | sell | 0.6% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: the merger consideration can't be valued, lawsuits are pending, EBITDA margin is shrinking and RSI is 34. |
| GSIT | sell | 1.0% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: operating losses are about the size of revenue, the company is diluting through its at-the-market share program, and the stock is below both its 50-day and 200-day averages. |
| LWLG | sell | 0.5% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: revenue is negligible and losses are widening. Management projects funding through December 2027, but with the at-the-market share program exhausted, a future dilutive raise is a risk, and the stock is down 69% from its high. |
| PLTR | sell | 12.6% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid at 62 conviction: 165.6x trailing and 81.9x forward earnings after a 45% 3-month gain. I can't set a valuation exit rule that makes holding sensible, so exit fully. Revisit only if the forward P/E falls below 50x with fundamentals intact. |
| ROKU | sell | 1.7% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: ROKU is a Fox merger target with undisclosed terms and pending demand letters, so the deal spread can't be measured. |
| TSLA | sell | 2.1% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: operating income fell 57% y/y despite revenue up 25.5%, EPS missed by 36%, and the stock is below its 200-day average. Capex of more than $25B is a heavy load even with $30B of new credit facilities available. |
| DRAM | sell | 3.3% | 0.0% | The thesis is avoid: 3-month relative strength is -8.8%, the price broke below its 20-day average, and Micron's sell-the-news reaction suggests a cyclical top. |
New picks: LPG. Dropped picks: V.
13 picks (10 open, 3 closed). Hit rate 33%. Average return 1.7% vs SPY -0.9% over the same windows. Every pick
Research output generated by automated models. Not financial advice. Verify before acting.